2024 NFL offseason: Projecting performances of quarterbacks who changed teams (2024)

The free agency stage of the offseason QB carousel has mostly stopped spinning.

The next step is sorting out the 2024 NFL Draft's quarterback class. Where will each prospect land? How many will be drafted inside the top 10, where pressure to start right away will be more significant?

As we wait to see where the rookies ultimately will settle at the end of this month, let's explore how the quarterbacks who changed teams in 2024 might fare with their new squads compared to their 2023 production. Yes, even you, Nathan Peterman.

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CLEAR-CUT STARTER

Average salary: $45 million

With Vikings in 2023: 8 games | 69.5 pct | 2,331 pass yds | 7.5 ypa | 18 pass TD | 5 INT | 25 rush yds | 0 rush TD | 7 fumbles

2024 numbers will be: BETTER

All indications suggest Cousins is on track to be healthy by Week 1. If he remains on the field -- not a given at his age -- he should easily surpass his 2023 figures. In his three previous full seasons and seven of the past eight, Cousins surpassed the 4,000-yard passing mark. Expect that to be the benchmark at this point in his career. The better question is whether he can recapture the pace he was on last season before the Week 8 Achilles injury. He was on track for a career-high 4,953 yards, averaging over 291 yards per tilt. Cousins fit swimmingly with Vikings head coach Kevin O'Connell. While we don't have an exact sense of how new Falcons OC Zac Robinson will run his offense, given that he's also from the Sean McVay tree, we can assume Cousins will fit similarly well. With weapons like Drake London and Kyle Pitts at Cousins' disposal -- not to mention, Bijan Robinson as a dynamic checkdown option -- I expect the veteran to hit the ground running in ATL.

TRAINING CAMP BATTLE

Average salary:$1.2 million

With Broncos in 2023:15 games | 66.4 pct | 3,070 pass yds | 6.9 ypa | 26 pass TD | 8 INT | 341 rush yds | 3 rush TD | 10 fumbles

2024 numbers will be:WORSE

Wilson wasn't the sole reason Denver's offense was a rickety operation last season, but he never did seem comfortable under Sean Payton. While he performed better in 2023 than in the disastrous 2022 campaign, Wilson still played skittish, missed throws and invited pressure, blowing reads far more than a signal-caller of his experience should. I think Arthur Smith's offense should better match Wilson's skill set. Perhaps getting jettisoned by the Broncos will force Wilson to admit he's closer to a top-shelf line cook than a five-star chef. He can still be a productive QB if he plays within the offense. However, my projection is that, even if he wins the starting gig out of training camp, I don't believe he fends off Justin Fields for an entire season. Nothing Wilson has shown us over the past several seasons suggests he won't stumble at some point throughout the process. At that point, I'm of the belief that Fields will be too enticing an option for Mike Tomlin to pass up.

Average salary:$4.7 million

With Bears in 2023:13 games | 61.4 pct | 2,562 pass yds | 6.9 ypa | 16 pass TD | 9 INT | 657 rush yds | 4 rush TD | 10 fumbles

2024 numbers will be:WORSE

Again, my assumption here is that the Steelers start the season with Wilson under center and then, at the first sign of trouble, swap in the youngster with greater upside. If Pittsburgh holds a true competition before the season and Fields wins, that changes the dynamic. In that case, his numbers could jump in 2024. I like Fields' fit in coordinator Arthur Smith's offense; we could have a situation brewing here that is similar to Ryan Tannehill's rebirth with the Titans in 2019. Fields displayed improvement in each season in Chicago despite less-than-ideal surroundings. Is he the perfect QB? No. But he owns explosive arm talent and dual-threat ability, and he improved his pocket passing. I think Pittsburgh will give the edge to the veteran (Wilson) out of camp, but for my money, Fields offers the Steelers a better chance to open up the offense in 2024.

THE PLACEHOLDERS

Average salary:$10 million

With 49ers in 2023:10 games | 60.9 pct | 297 pass yds | 6.5 ypa | 2 pass TD | 1 INT | 15 rush yds | 1 rush TD | 3 fumbles

2024 numbers will be:BETTER

Thanks to their acquisition of a second first-round pick, the Vikings have positioned themselves to potentially leap up the draft board to select a quarterback. Until we know whether they do that (and whom they pick), though, it's impossible to project Darnold's role. Still, if he starts more than one game in 2024, he should easily pass the numbers he put up last season.

It's easy to imagine Kevin O'Connell beginning the season with Darnold under center and giving a rookie QB time to learn the speed of the game from the sideline. Darnold devotees insist he was reborn under Kyle Shanahan in San Francisco last season. But was he really? During his lone start with the Niners in Week 18, Darnold didn't look much different than he did during his time in Carolina. And my split-pea-sized brain can't get over the three fumbles and six sacks he logged in 125 total snaps in San Francisco. I trust KOC to get the most out of his quarterbacks, but color me skeptical about the notion that Darnold will be any different in 2024 than he was previously. He flashes good plays, but just makes too many mistakes -- particularly when under pressure -- to be a consistent performer.

Average salary:$8 million

With Commanders in 2023: 3 games | 78.3 pct | 224 pass yds | 9.7 ypa | 3 pass TD | 0 INT | 19 rush yds | 0 rush TD | 0 fumbles

2024 numbers will be:BETTER

The Patriots appear poised to select their signal-caller of the future at No. 3 overall. Brissett was an excellent pickup by the new brass as a veteran who can hold the fort if needed or be the backup mentor. The 31-year-old has proven he won't rock the boat, aiding young signal-callers where required. He also is better than many backup options. Each time he entered a game last season in Washington, he jump-started the offense with splash plays. In 2022 with the Browns, he functioned much better than Deshaun Watson in Kevin Stefanski's offense. Depending on whom New England drafts, Brissett could be in line to start the season before eventually making way for the future signal-caller. If the Pats go that route, they'll be in good hands to start the Jerod Mayo era.

Average salary:$12.5 million

With Colts in 2023:17 games | 62.2 pct | 3,305 pass yds | 6.7 ypa | 15 pass TD | 9 INT | 100 rush yd | 3 rush TD | 8 fumbles

2024 numbers will be:WORSE

Minshew put up a career-high in yards last season, replacing the injured Anthony Richardson. The 27-year-old showed he's adept at getting the ball out quickly and is as tough as they come. He's exactly what you want in a backup QB: someone who can go in and keep your club competitive, whether for a series or 12 games. I believe he was a better fit in Shane Steichen's scheme than what we've seen from Raiders OC Luke Getsy, but Minshew is a solid placeholder. The question is whether Vegas gets aggressive in finding a rookie quarterback in the first round or decides to roll with Minshew and Aiden O'Connell in 2024 before re-evaluating the position in 2025.

Average salary:$6 million

With Eagles in 2023:3 games | 65.2 pct | 164 pass yds | 7.1 ypa | 1 pass TD | 1 INT | 52 rush yds | 0 rush TD | 1 fumble

2024 numbers will be:BETTER

It would be insulting if I suggested worse, right? Despite pervasive evidence that Mariota isn't a quality signal-caller at this point, he keeps getting prime backup gigs. Eagles fans were so disenchanted by his performances during the preseason last year that they called for Tanner McKee to leap him on the depth chart. In the few instances Mariota got in the game last season, he didn't exactly prove those fans wrong. As a starter for Atlanta in 2022, Mariota struggled to move the offense consistently and made far too many head-scratching decisions. Despite the subpar play of late, the Commanders put him in a spot to be the primary backup to the No. 2 overall pick. I guess Mariota brings some dual-threat ability to Kliff Kingsbury's system. That said, of all the backup situations on this list, Washington's sits as the most dubious, giving whichever rookie is drafted in DC a better chance of starting off the bat.

BACKUPS IN POTENTIALLY KEY ROLES

Average salary:$3.5 million

With Steelers in 2023:12 games | 62 pct | 2,070 pass yds | 6.4 ypa | 6 pass TD | 4 INT | 54 rush yds | 1 rush TD | 2 fumbles

2024 numbers will be:WORSE

Pittsburgh jettisoned the former first-round pick after just two seasons, which was quite surprising, given that the organization is rarely reactionary. Pickett's play didn't help matters, though. Yes, many players were responsible for the Steelers' offensive struggles, but the QB didn't show signs he could raise all boats, something you want from a franchise signal-caller. Inconsistent play epitomized Pickett's time with the franchise. Yes, he had some fourth-quarter comebacks, but many of those were needed after the offense fumbled around for 45 minutes. He now heads to Philly to revamp his standing within the league. We know Jalen Hurts isn't shy about playing through injuries, so don't expect to see much of Pickett in 2024 (barring catastrophe). If you're a Pickett believer, the hope is that he can pull a Minshew by becoming a quality backup who can start and win games in the right offense if needed.

Average salary:$4.5 million

With Browns in 2023:5 games | 60.3 pct | 1,616 pass yds | 7.9 ypa | 13 pass TD | 8 INT | 2 rush yds | 0 rush TD | 4 fumbles

2024 numbers will be:WORSE

As a football lover, I don't want to bet on Anthony Richardson continuing to struggle with injuries. The young QB showed dynamic ability last season before having his year cut well short. Let's hope the major health issues are in the past, which would saddle Flacco to the bench for the bulk of the 2024 campaign. If needed, however, Ol' Joe showed he can still sling it. Flacco's ability to process quickly would fit well in Shane Steichen's system, and his still-functioning cannon could help him open up the offense where Minshew couldn't last season. The Colts hope they don't have to see the 39-year-old much, but he's a fine backup who can keep the season alive if the injury bug bites Richardson again.

Average salary:$1.3 million

With Falcons in 2023:15 games | 64.2 pct | 2,836 pass yds | 7.3 ypa | 12 pass TD | 12 INT | 193 rush yds | 5 rush TD | 12 fumbles

2024 numbers will be:WORSE

A recalibration of expectations should be welcome for the former third-round pick. He never could find consistency when handed the starting gig in Atlanta last season. The red zone turnovers -- many avoidable -- showed a young player still needing development. His experience gives Arizona a solid backup behind Kyler Murray, but one who won't threaten the starter's standing. Ridder could become a solid career backup if he plays his cards right and performs when needed in Arizona. Stumble, and he could be out of the backup rotation sooner than later.

Average salary:$6 million

With Giants in 2023:11 games| 64.4 pct | 1,341 pass yds | 7.5 ypa | 5 pass TD | 3 INT | 197 rush yds | 0 rush TD | 4 fumbles

2024 numbers will be:WORSE

Jets fans are praying they don't see much of Taylor. In the five seasons before his 2023 Achilles injury, Aaron Rodgers missed a single contest (the COVID-19 episode of 2021). If his tendons and bones cooperate, Rodgers won't miss many games. But Taylor represents an upgrade on Gang Green's backup spot in the event the 40-year-old QB's body doesn't cooperate. Taylor is a steady signal-caller, capable of running the offense, and he can make a deep splash now and again. Given that Gang Green's backups struggled with the simplest reads last season, having a professional backup is an upgrade for a Jets squad with designs on breaking its interminable postseason drought.

Average salary:$3.18 million

With Raiders in 2023:7 games| 65.1 pct | 1,205 pass yds | 7.1 ypa | 7 pass TD | 9 INT | 39 rush yds | 0 rush TD | 1 fumbles

2024 numbers will be:WORSE

Matthew Stafford plays through just about everything, but if serious injury strikes, Jimmy G represents a better backup situation than Los Angeles had entering last season. Brett Rypien started a lone game for the Rams before they scrapped that plan and brought in Carson Wentz. Yes, Garoppolo's sporadic play in Vegas last year led to his eventual benching, but the 32-year-old is a fine No. 2 option for Sean McVay. With a solid run game, a good O-line and weapons on the outside, L.A. would only need the veteran not to give games away if he's called upon.

Average salary:$1 million

With Commanders in 2023:17 games | 63.4 pct | 3,946 pass yds | 6.4 ypa | 21 pass TD | 21 INT | 263 rush yds | 5 rush TD | 4 fumbles

2024 numbers will be:WORSE

Howell showed flashes of promise last season in Washington, but he put the ball in harm's way far too often and struggled down the stretch as defenses took away his initial reads. Seattle is a cushy landing spot where he can learn from a QB (Geno Smith) who went through an up-and-down early-career cycle himself. If needed, Howell has the skill to start a game here or there while developing his fundamentals. That he'll do so cheaply helps Seattle's cause.

Average salary:$5 million

With Seahawks in 2023:4 games | 63.2 pct | 543 pass yds | 7.1 ypa | 3 pass TD | 3 INT | 14 rush yds | 0 rush TD | 0 fumbles

2024 numbers will be:BETTER

I believe the Giants when they say the plan is for Daniel Jones to start the season under center. What I don't believe is that the QB will stay healthy for 17 games. Jones has never played a full season and suffered multiple injuries last year. Lock gives Big Blue a solid backup option if/when Jones gets dinged again. The 27-year-old Lock showed upside last season but still puts the ball up for grabs more than you'd like for a full-time starter. The wild card in all this is the Giants' draft pick at No. 6 overall. If they go QB, scrap the above sentences.

Average salary:$3.9 million

With Patriots in 2023:11 games | 64.9 pct | 2,120 pass yds | 6.1 ypa | 10 pass TD | 12 INT | 96 rush yds | 0 rush TD | 3 fumbles

2024 numbers will be:WORSE

Coming off a disastrous 2023 campaign in which he made some mind-numbingly poor decisions, Jones gets to take a step out of the spotlight and recalibrate. Since becoming a first-round pick, the ex-Patriot has performed progressively worse. The offensive schemes did Jones no favors, but the poor decision-making led to a combustible concoction. The 25-year-old should benefit from joining a Doug Pederson offense and playing behind Trevor Lawrence. Jones has a lot of growing to do but should give Jacksonville some cushion if Lawrence suffers an injury that sidelines him this season.

Average salary:$2.6 million

With Steelers in 2023:5 games | 62.6 pct | 632 pass yds | 5.9 ypa | 4 pass TD | 5 INT | 54 rush yds | 2 rush TD | 1 fumbles

2024 numbers will be:WORSE

After two seasons trying to jump-start a career as a starter, Trubisky is back to playing caddie to Josh Allen. At this point, it's clear that Trubisky's days of being more than a spot starter/backup are over.

Average salary:$2.9 million

With Steelers in 2023:4 games | 74.3 pct | 719 pass yds | 9.7 ypa | 3 pass TD | 0 INT | 8 rush yds | 0 rush TD | 3 fumbles

2024 numbers will be:BETTER

Rudolph played well down the stretch, helping guide the Steelers to the postseason, but didn't get any nibbles for a starting gig in 2024. He lands in a spot where he could certainly see reps, given Will Levis' penchant for standing in and taking big shots in the pocket. We saw the big-armed Titans passer get nicked up last season. The projection here is that Levis again misses a few games, opening the door for Rudolph to step into a QB-friendly Brian Callahan offense.

Average salary:$4 million

With Saints in 2023:7 games | 53.2 pct | 264 pass yds | 5.6 ypa | 2 pass TD | 3 INT | -6 rush yds | 0 rush TD | 0 fumbles

2024 numbers will be:BETTER

Winston could surpass his 2023 stats in a lone start. Given Deshaun Watson's injury history (he missed 11 games last season), there is no guarantee he'll make it through an entire season. Winston still throws too many balls up for grabs but can also make splash plays. Few QBs conjure Holy crap, HOW did he make that throw?!?! followed by Holy crap, WHY did he make that throw??? within three plays like Winston. A good locker room personality, Winston is clearly in the backup phase of his career.

Average salary:$2.3 million

With Cardinals and Vikings in 2023:13 games | 62.8 pct | 2,464 pass yds | 5.9 ypa | 13 pass TD | 10 INT | 421 rush yds | 6 rush TD | 14 fumbles

2024 numbers will be:WORSE

Last year's magical run for the Passtronaut burned out as turnovers cost him a shot to remain the starting QB in Minnesota. Dobbs' ability to avoid pressure, use his legs and run the offense bodes favorably in Kyle Shanahan's scheme. Much like Sam Darnold last season, he's a break-glass-in-case-of-emergency QB behind Brock Purdy in San Francisco.

Average salary:$1.3 million

With Ravens in 2023:5 games | 56.8 pct | 203 pass yds | 5.5 ypa | 3 pass TD | 0 INT | 55 rush yds | 0 rush TD | 0 fumbles

2024 numbers will be:WORSE

The Browns' other backup QB, Huntley made nine starts in four seasons with Baltimore and offers some dual-threat ability. Unless injury strikes Deshaun Watson early or he suffers a setback, Huntley feels like an offseason arm that could stick around in case of emergency.

Average salary:$1.1 million

With Rams in 2023:2 games | 47.4 pct | 172 pass yds | 4.5 ypa | 0 pass TD | 1 INT | 19 rush yds | 0 rush TD | 2 fumbles

2024 numbers will be:WORSE

Rypien also had stints with the Seahawks and Jets in 2023 but didn't record any stats with those clubs. His play in the lone start for L.A. led to a near-immediate release in early November and the Rams signing Carson Wentz. Rypien is a camp arm/practice-squad emergency QB.

Average salary:$1.3 million

With Bears in 2023:2 games | 0 pass attempts | -4 rush yds | 0 rush TD | 1 fumble

2024 numbers will be:I'm Ron Burgundy?

Good for Peterman to continue getting paid despite that five-INT first career start back in 2017 and the fact that he's done little else since. Making a million dollars to watch film and occasionally throw a pass in practice is a great gig if you can get it.