2025 Oscar Predictions: Best Picture [Updated October 23] (2024)

The 2025 Oscars will be televised live on ABC on Sunday, March 2 next year while the nominations will be announced a couple of months earlier — on January 17. There is a long way to go until then, of course, but, for us here at Gold Derby, it’s never too early to start thinking about the next Academy Awards. With that in mind, here is a list of contenders we think could be potential Best Picture competitors, as well as all the information you need to know about them. (Scroll down for our updated 2025 Oscar predictions for Best Picture.)

One of the early Oscar hopefuls, Greg Kwedar’s docudrama set in a prison, “Sing Sing,” debuted at the 2023 edition of TIFF. Another, Jesse Eisenberg‘s road trip “A Real Pain,” unspooled at Sundance in January. And Denis Villeneuve‘s “Dune: Part Two” was released in March. The latter was a sequel to the 2021 movie that racked up a whopping 10 Oscar nominations and won an even half dozen. That track record made it even more surprising that the Canadian helmer was snubbed by the directors branch.

A pair of players —Sean Baker’s seriocomic “Anora” and Jacques Audiard’s genre-blending “Emilia Perez” — debuted at Cannes. The former won the biggest prize of the filmfest, the Palme d’Or, while the four women at the center of the action in the latter (Karla Sofía Gascon, Selena Gomez, Adriana Paz and Zoe Saldana) shared in the Best Actress prize.

At the Venice film festival, Pedro Almodovar‘s first English feature, “The Room Next Door,” won the Golden Lion. His character study is a showcase for Oscar winners Julianne Moore and Tilda Swinton. Third time looks to be the charm for Brady Corbet, who won Best Director for his epic drama “The Brutalist,” which stars Oscar winner Adrian Brody. And Tim Fehlbaum‘s docudrama “September 5” was an unexpected hit, generating plenty of buzz for its gripping retelling of the 1972 Olympics hostage crisis.

Telluride was packed full of premieres of potential Best Picture nominees. Edward Berger‘s “Conclave” is a fast-paced adaptation of the Robert Harris thriller about the election of a new Pope with stand-out turns from a trio of past Oscar contenders: Ralph Fiennes, John Lithgow and Stanley Tucci. Oscar nominated documentary filmmaker RaMell Ross (“Hale County This Morning, This Evening”) makes a mark with his first feature, “Nickel Boys,” based on Colson Whitehead‘s Pulitzer-winning novel. Ross reaped praise for his decision to shoot the film from the perspective of the protagonist. Another directorial debut, “The Piano Lesson,” is a family affair. Malcolm Washington directs his brother, John David Washington, while their father, Denzel Washington, is a co-producer of this adaptation of August Wilson‘s Pulitzer-winning play.

A few of these are playing at the New York filmfest, which closed with the debut of Steve McQueen‘s “Blitz. This WWII drama features Oscar favorite Saoirse Ronan (who also stars in the critically acclaimed “The Outrun” as well).

And several more will be seen later in October at the AFI fest in Los Angeles. Two big studio pictures — Robert Zemeckis‘ “Here” and Clint Eastwood‘s “Juror No. 2” — will premiere here. The former reunites his stars from the Oscar-winning “Forrest Gump,” Tom Hanks and Robin Wright, in a drama that spans time but not space as it is set firmly in the same location over millennia. The latter is a tense courtroom drama and is the 40th film directed by this 4-time Oscar champ.

Skipping the festival circuit are several other big budget movies: Ridley Scott‘s “Gladiator 2,” the follow-up to his 2001 Best Picture champ, and Jon M. Chu‘s “Wicked,” the long-awaited movie version of the Broadway musical (well, at least its first act). Both screened for the first time recently to overall positive reactions.

To make our 2025 Oscar predictions for Best Picture, we consider many factors: the pedigree of the filmmakers, the critical reception to their previous films, the box office tally and the track record of the studios.

UPDATED: October 23, 2024

LEADING CONTENDERS (ordered by odds)

“Anora” (Neon)
Release Date: October 18
Director: Sean Baker
Writer: Sean Baker
Cast: Mikey Maddison, Mark Eidelstein, Yuri Borisov, Vache Tovmasyan
Plot: “Anora is a comedy about a sex worker shot in New York City and Las Vegas.”
Rotten Tomatoes Score: 98%
Metacritic Score: 89

“Emilia Pérez” (Netflix)
Release Date: November 1
Director: Jacques Audiard
Writer: Jacques Audiard
Cast: Zoe Saldaña, Karla Sofía Gascón, Selena Gomes, Édgar Ramírez
Plot: “Mexico, today. Lawyer Rita receives an unexpected offer. She has to help a feared cartel boss retire from his business and disappear forever by becoming the woman he’s always dreamed of being.”
Rotten Tomatoes Score: 86%
Metacritic Score: 70

“Conclave” (Focus Features)
Release Date: Edward Berger
Director: November 1
Writer: Peter Straughan
Cast: Ralph Fiennes, Stanley Tucci, John Lithgow, Isabella Rossellini
Plot: “Cardinal Lawrence is tasked with leading one of the world’s most secretive and ancient events, selecting a new Pope, where he finds himself at the center of a conspiracy that could shake the very foundation of The Church.”
Rotten Tomatoes Score: 94
Metacritic Score: 80

“The Brutalist” (A24)
Release Date: December 20
Director: Brady Corbet
Writer: Brady Corbet
Cast: Adrien Brody, Felicity Jones, Joe Alwyn, Alessandro Nivola, Guy Pearce
Plot:“When visionary architect László Toth and his wife Erzsébet flee post-war Europe in 1947 to rebuild their legacy and witness the birth of modern America, their lives are changed forever by a mysterious and wealthy client.”
Rotten Tomatoes Score: 97
Metacritic Score: 89

“Sing Sing” (A24)
Release Date: July 12
Director: Greg Kwedar
Writer: Clint Bentley and Greg Kwedar
Cast: Colman Domingo, Clarence “Divine Eye” Maclin, Sean San José, Paul Raci
Plot: “Divine G, imprisoned at Sing Sing for a crime he didn’t commit, finds purpose by acting in a theatre group alongside other incarcerated men in this story of resilience, humanity, and the transformative power of art.”
Rotten Tomatoes Score: 97%
Metacritic Score: 84

“Dune: Part Two” (Warner Bros.)
Release Date: March 1
Director: Denis Villeneuve
Writer: Jon Spaihts and Denis Villeneuve
Cast: Timothée Chalamet, Zendaya, Josh Brolin, Austin Butler
Plot: “Paul Atreides unites with Chani and the Fremen while seeking revenge against the conspirators who destroyed his family.”
Rotten Tomatoes Score: 92%
Metacritic Score: 79

“Gladiator II” (Paramount)
Release Date: November 22
Director: Ridley Scott
Writer: David Scarpa
Cast: Paul Mescal, Pedro Pascal, Denzel Washington, Joseph Quinn
Plot: “Follows Lucius, the son of Maximus’s love Lucilla, after Maximus’s death.”
Rotten Tomatoes Score: TBD
Metacritic Score: TBD

“Blitz” (Apple Original Films)
Release Date: November 1
Director: Steve McQueen
Writer: Steve McQueen
Cast: Saoirse Ronan, Stephen Graham, Harris Dickinson, Kathy Burke
Plot: “Follow the stories of a group of Londoners during the events of the British capital bombing in World War II.”
Rotten Tomatoes Score: 76
Metacritic Score: 70

“Nickel Boys” (Amazon MGM Studios)
Release Date: Dec. 13 (NYC); Dec. 20 (LA)
Director: RaMell Ross
Writer: RaMell Ross and Joslyn Barnes
Cast: Aunjanue Ellis, Ethan Herisse, Fred Hechinger, Hamish Linklater
Plot: “Based on the Pulitzer Prize-winning novel by Colson Whitehead, Nickel Boys chronicles the powerful friendship between two young African American men navigating the harrowing trials of reform school together in Florida.”
Rotten Tomatoes Score: 80
Metacritic Score: 89

“September 5” (Paramount)
Release Date: November 29
Director: Tim Fehlbaum
Writers: Tim Fehlbaum, Moritz Binder, Alex David
Cast: Peter Sarsgaard, John Magaro, Ben Chaplin, Leonie Benesch
Plot: “During the 1972 Munich Olympics, an American sports broadcasting crew finds itself thrust into covering the hostage crisis involving Israeli athletes.
Rotten Tomatoes Score: 92
Metacritic Score: 76

STRONG CONTENDERS (ordered by odds)

“A Complete Unknown” (Searchlight)
Release Date: December 25
Director: James Mangold
Writer: Jay Cocks, James Mangold
Cast: Timothée Chalamet, Edward Norton, Elle Fanning, Monica Barbaro
Plot: “At the Newport Folk Festival in 1965, a young Bob Dylan shakes up his act on the folk music scene by going electric and siring rock as the voice of a generation.”
Rotten Tomatoes Score: TBD
Metacritic Score: TBD

“A Real Pain” (Searchlight)
Release Date: November 1
Director: Jesse Eisenberg
Writer: Jesse Eisenberg
Cast: Jesse Eisenberg Kieran Culkin, Will Sharpe, Jennifer Grey
Plot: “Mismatched cousins David and Benji reunite for a tour through Poland to honor their beloved grandmother. The adventure takes a turn when the odd-couple’s old tensions resurface against the backdrop of their family history.”
Rotten Tomatoes Score: 91%
Metacritic Score: 84

“The Piano Lesson” (Netflix)
Release Date: November 8
Director: Malcolm Washington
Writer: Virgil Williams and Malcolm Washington
Cast: John David Washington, Samuel L. Jackson, Ray Fisher, Danielle Deadwyler
Plot: “Follows the lives of the Charles family as they deal with themes of family legacy and more, in deciding what to do with an heirloom, the family piano.”
Rotten Tomatoes Score: 93
Metacritic Score: 68

“Wicked” (Universal)
Release Date: November 22
Director: Jon M. Chu
Writer: Winnie Holzman
Cast: Cynthia Erivo, Ariana Grande, Jeff Goldblum, Michelle Yeoh
Plot: “After two decades as one of the most beloved and enduring musicals on the stage, Wicked makes its long-awaited journey to the big screen as a spectacular, generation-defining two-part cinematic event this holiday season.”
Rotten Tomatoes Score: TBD
Metacritic Score: TBD

“The Room Next Door” (Warner Bros.)
Release Date: December 20
Director: Pedro Almodóvar
Writer: Pedro Almodóvar
Cast: Julianne Moore, Tilda Swinton, John Turturro, Alessandro Nivola
Plot: “Martha’s strained relationship with her mother fractures completely when a misunderstanding drives them apart. Their mutual friend Ingrid sees both sides of the rift.”
Rotten Tomatoes Score: 96
Metacritic Score: 70

POSSIBLE CONTENDERS (alphabetical order)

“All We Imagine as Light” (Condor Entertainment/September Film)
Release Date: May 23
Director: Payal Kapadia
Writer: Payal Kapadia
Cast: Kani Kusruti, Divya Prabha, Chhaya Kadam, Hridhu Haroon
Plot: “In Mumbai, Nurse Prabha’s routine is troubled when she receives an unexpected gift from her estranged husband. Her younger roommate, Anu, tries in vain to find a spot in the city to be intimate with her boyfriend.”
Rotten Tomatoes Score: 100%
Metacritic Score: 93

“Babygirl” (A24)
Release Date: December 20
Director: Halina Reijn
Writer: Halina Reijn
Cast: Nicole Kidman, Harris Dickinson, Antonio Banderas, Sophie Wilde
Plot: “Despite the risk and prejudices, a very successful CEO begins an illicit affair with her much younger intern.”
Rotten Tomatoes Score: 93
Metacritic Score: 82

“Civil War” (A24)
Release Date: April 12
Director: Alex Garland
Writer: Alex Garland
Cast: Kirsten Dunst, Wagner Moura, Cailee Spaeny, Stephen McKinley Henderson
Plot: “A journey across a dystopian future America, following a team of military-embedded journalists as they race against time to reach DC before rebel factions descend upon the White House.”
Rotten Tomatoes Score: 81%
Metacritic Score: 75

“The Fire Inside” (Amazon MGM Studios)
Release Date: December 25
Director: Rachel Morrison
Writer: Barry Jenkins
Cast: Ryan Destiny, Judy Greer, Brian Tyree Henry, Oluniké Adeliyi
Plot: “The story of Claressa ‘T-Rex’ Shields, a boxer from Flint, Michigan who trained to become the first woman in her country’s history to win an Olympic gold medal in the sport.”
Rotten Tomatoes Score: TBD
Metacritic Score: TBD

“Furiosa: A Mad Max Saga” (Warner Bros.)
Release Date: May 24
Director: George Miller
Writer: Nico Lathouris and George Miller
Cast: Anya Taylor-Joy, Chris Hemsworth, Tom Burke, Alyla Browne
Plot: “Set 15 to 20 years before the events of ‘Fury Road,’ the film follows the title character’s life for over a decade, from her kidnapping by the forces of warlord Dementus to her ascension to the rank of Imperator.”
Rotten Tomatoes Score: 90%
Metacritic Score: 79

“Hard Truths” (Bleecker Street)
Release Date: December 6
Director: Mike Leigh
Writer: Mike Leigh
Cast: Marianne Jean-Baptiste, Michele Austin, David Webber, Elliot, Edusah
Plot: “Ongoing exploration of the contemporary world with a tragicomic study of human strengths and weaknesses.”
Rotten Tomatoes Score: TBD
Metacritic Score: TBD

“Here” (Sony Pictures)
Release Date: November 1
Director: Robert Zemeckis
Writer: Eric Roth and Robert Zemeckis
Cast: Tom Hanks, Robin Wright, Paul Bettany, Kelly Reilly
Plot: “From the reunited director, writer, and stars of Forrest Gump (1994), Here is an original film about multiple families and a special place they inhabit. The story travels through generations, capturing the human experience in its purest form.”
Rotten Tomatoes Score: TBD
Metacritic Score: TBD

“Inside Out 2” (Disney)
Release Date: June 14
Director: Kelsey Mann
Writer: Kelsey Mann, Meg LeFauve, and Dave Holstein
Cast: Amy Poehler, Phyllis Smith, Maya Hawke, Tony Hale
Plot: “A sequel that features Riley entering puberty and experiencing brand new, more complex emotions as a result. As Riley tries to adapt to her teenage years, her old emotions try to adapt to the possibility of being replaced.”
Rotten Tomatoes Score: 90%
Metacritic Score: 73

“Juror #2” (Warner Bros.)
Release Date: November 1
Director: Clint Eastwood
Writer: Jonathan Abrams
Cast: Nicholas Hoult, Toni Collette, Kiefer Sutherland, J.K. Simmons
Plot: “Family man Justin Kemp who, while serving as a juror in a high profile murder trial, finds himself struggling with a serious moral dilemma…one he could use to sway the jury verdict and potentially convict-or free-the wrong killer.”
Rotten Tomatoes Score: TBD
Metacritic Score: TBD

“Nosferatu” (Focus Features/Universal)
Release Date: December 25
Director: Robert Eggers
Writer: Robert Eggers
Cast: Bill Skarsgård, Nicholas Hoult, Lily-Rose Depp, Willem Dafoe
Plot: “A gothic tale of obsession between a haunted young woman, and the terrifying vampire infatuated with her causing untold horror in its wake.”
Rotten Tomatoes Score: TBD
Metacritic Score: TBD

“Saturday Night” (Sony)
Release Date: October 11
Director: Jason Reitman
Writer: Gil Kenan, Jason Reitman
Cast: Gabriel LaBelle, Rachel Sennott, Cory Michael Smith, Ella Hunt, Dylan O’Brien
Plot: “Find out what happened behind the scenes in the 90 minutes leading up to the first broadcast of Saturday Night Live.”
Rotten Tomatoes Score: 81
Metacritic Score: 63

“The Substance” (Mubi)
Release Date: September 20
Director: Coralie Fargeat
Writer: Coralie Fargeat
Cast: Demi Moore, Margaret Qualley, Dennis Quaid, Hugo Diego Garcia
Plot: “A fading celebrity decides to use a black market drug, a cell-replicating substance that temporarily creates a younger, better version of herself.”
Rotten Tomatoes Score: 93%
Metacritic Score: 84

“We Live in Time” (A24)
Release Date: October 11
Director: John Crowley
Writer: Nick Payne
Cast: Andrew Garfield, Florence Pugh, Adam James, Marama Corlett
Plot: “An up-and-coming chef and a recent divorcée find their lives forever changed when a chance encounter brings them together, in a decade-spanning, deeply moving romance.”
Rotten Tomatoes Score: 83
Metacritic Score: 66

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2025 Oscar Predictions: Best Picture [Updated October 23] (2024)

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