Oscars 2025: The 12 Leading Contenders for Best Picture (2024)

• ‘Anora’

  

  What Happens: An escort cuts a deal with an oligarch’s son. Then the gangsters get involved.
  Reason to Believe: Three of the last four Palme d’Or winners have made the best picture cut for Neon — and one won (Parasite).
  Reason to Doubt: Are the indie-ish Baker and his outré visions too much for some voters?

• ‘Blitz’

  

  What Happens: A single mother and her son are separated in Blitz-era London.
  Reason to Believe: Period cred and past Oscar darling Steve McQueen.
  Reason to Doubt: Saving Private Ryan, Dunkirk, 1917: World War movies these days tend to come up short.

• ‘The Brutalist’

  

  What Happens: An architect who escaped the Holocaust makes his way to the U.S. to live an epic life.
  Reason to Believe: A sweeping vision that clocks in at more than three hours.
  Reason to Doubt: A sweeping vision that clocks in at more than three hours.

• ‘A Complete Unknown’

  

  What Happens: Bob Dylan plugs in at Newport, and everyone needs shelter from the storm.
  Reason to Believe: After zooming ahead with Ford v Ferrari, Mangold seeks the finish line. Also, Timothée Chalamet as an icon.
  Reason to Doubt: Does the rock-folk tension seem consequential enough in 2024?

  See Also

  Oscars 2025: 10 of the films that could win big next year

• ‘Conclave’

  

  What Happens: A pope dies, and everyone wants the big job.
  Reason to Believe: Delicious fun in serious clothing.
  Reason to Doubt: Is it about enough? Also, a divisive ending.

• ‘Dune: Part Two’

  

  What Happens: More adventures of Paul Atreides as he forms new unions and wages new wars.
  Reason to Believe: A franchise and a director that have been building momentum for years.
  Reason to Doubt: Distant-planet epics and March releases often are forgotten.

• ‘Emilia Pérez’

  

  What Happens: Your typical Spanish-language cartel thriller/trans-themed family drama with musical elements.
  Reason to Believe: The sheer audacity, the relevant topicality.
  Reason to Doubt: Is the Never-Netflix voter still a thing?

• ‘Gladiator II’

  

  What Happens: A grown-up Lucius comes back to Rome to gladiate glory back to his people.
  Reason to Believe: Nostalgia … for both the Roman period and the days of studio historical epics.
  Reason to Doubt: “Didn’t we honor this movie in 2001?”

• ‘The Seed of The Sacred Fig’

  

  What Happens: A family in repressive Iran is torn apart by politics.
  Reason to Believe: Geopolitical resonance and a director who escaped Iran with his movie.
  Reason to Doubt: The best picture doesn’t often do long, foreign-language dramas set halfway around the world.

• ‘September 5’

  

  What Happens: One day in Munich in the ABC News control room during the 1972 Olympics.
  Reason to Believe: Sorkin-esque urgency about big media topics.
  Reason to Doubt: Global indies can struggle without as many crewmembers and filmmakers that voters know. Plus the fraught Israeli-Palestinian backdrop.

• ‘Wicked’

  

  What Happens: Witches Elphaba and Glinda begin their journeys.
  Reason to Believe: Is it Cats or is it Chicago?
  Reason to Doubt: Is it Chicago or is it Cats?

• ‘The Wild Robot’

  

  What Happens: Roz the Robot lands on an animal island and learns how to feel.
  Reason to Believe: An AI movie that’s heartfelt and accessible. Also, it’s already a hit.
  Reason to Doubt: Only three animated movies have ever been nominated; none have won.

  This story appeared in the Oct. 30 issue of The Hollywood Reporter magazine. Click here to subscribe.

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