Switch edition betweenU.S. EditionAsia EditionGlobal Edition
- U.S.
- Asia
- Global
LoginAccount
LoginAccount
VarietyAwards Circuitsection is the home for all awards news and related content throughout the year, featuring the following: the official predictions for the upcoming Oscars,Emmys, Grammys and Tony Awards ceremonies, curated byVarietysenior awards editor Clayton Davis. The prediction pages reflect the current standings in the race and do not reflect personal preferences for any individual contender. As other formal (and informal) polls suggest, competitions are fluid and subject to change based on buzz and events. Predictions are updated every Thursday.
Explore Awards Circuit Predictions Pages
Oscars | Emmys | Grammys | Tonys
SAG Awards Commentary (Updated Nov. 26, 2024): It’s the week of Thanksgiving when the first batch of screeners gets watched by voters over the holiday weekend. So, where does it all stand?
Universal Pictures’ “Wicked” has dominated the headlines, while industry screenings and Q&As have been underway over the past week. Sony Pictures held a SAG NomCom screening with the cast of “Saturday Night” on Monday evening, and the sizeable, sprawling ensemble was the highlight. The highlight was bolstered by a passionate speech from cast member Robert Wuhl, who spoke about the importance of awards to an actor’s livelihood, generating roaring applause from the crowd. Those are the types of moments that can lead to recognition.
The same can be said for Netflix’s Spanish-language musical “Emilia Pérez,” which received a standing ovation for its star, Karla Sofía Gascón, at a SAG Q&A that I moderated. If the awards campaign stays the course, she could be on her way to making history.
The pre-Thanksgiving updates are below. The individual category pages won’t be updated until the weekend, but you can find the overall thoughts in this week’s Awards Circuit column.
On Monday, the Gotham Awards will have the first official say on the year in movies before the New York Film Critics Circle weighs in on Tuesday, followed by the National Board of Review on Wednesday. My official projections for each group are below. Remember, none of these groups are the end-point for an awards contender (“The Lord of the Rings” films were all absent from NBR’s top 10 lists). It’s nearly impossible to gauge where anyone’s tastes will go. And yet, we predict anyway. Happy Thanksgiving.
Gotham Awards Predictions (Dec. 2)
Best Feature: “Anora”
Lead Performance: Marianne Jean-Baptiste, “Hard Truths”
Supporting Performance: Kieran Culkin, “A Real Pain”
Director: Sean Baker, “Anora”
International Feature: “All We Imagine as Light”
Documentary Feature: “Soundtrack to a Coup d’Etat”
Screenplay: “His Three Daughters”
Breakthrough Director: Alessandra Lacorazza, “In the Summers”
Breakthrough Performer: Ryan Destiny, “The Fire Inside”
New York Film Critics Circle Predictions (Dec. 3)
Best Film: “The Brutalist”
Director: Brady Corbet, “The Brutalist”
Actor: Timothée Chalamet, “A Complete Unknown”
Actress: Nicole Kidman, “Babygirl”
Supporting Actor: Kieran Culkin, “A Real Pain”
Supporting Actress: Aunjanue Ellis-Taylor, “Nickel Boys”
Screenplay: “Anora”
Animated Film: “The Wild Robot”
Cinematography: “Nosferatu”
Non-Fiction Film: “No Other Land”
International Film: “The Seed of the Sacred Fig”
First Film: Annie Baker, “Janet Planet”
National Board of Review (Dec. 4)
Best Film: “Conclave”
Director: Jacques Audiard, “Emilia Pérez”
Actor: Colman Domingo, “Sing Sing”
Actress: Pamela Anderson, “The Last Showgirl”
Supporting Actor: Denzel Washington, “Gladiator II”
Supporting Actress: Danielle Deadwyler, “The Piano Lesson”
Original Screenplay: “Anora”
Adapted Screenplay: “The Room Next Door”
Animated Feature: “Inside Out 2”
Breakthrough Performance: Karla Sofía Gascón, “Emilia Pérez”
Directorial Debut: Malcolm Washington, “The Piano Lesson”
International Film: “I’m Still Here”
Documentary: “Sugarcane”
Ensemble: “Saturday Night”
Cinematography: “Dune: Part Two”
Stunt Artistry: “The Fall Guy”
NBR Top 10 Films
“Challengers”
“A Complete Unknown”
“Dune: Part Two”
“Inside Out 2”
“A Real Pain”
“Saturday Night”
“September 5”
“Sing Sing”
“Wicked”
“The Wild Robot”
Top 10 Independent Films
“Anora”
“Between the Temples”
“The Brutalist”
“A Different Man”
“Ghostlight”
“Girls Will Be Girls”
“In the Summers”
“Janet Planet”
“Nickel Boys”
“The People’s Joker”
Top 5 International Films
“All We Imagine as Light”
“Armand”
“Emilia Pérez”
“I’m Still Here”
“Vermiglio”
Top 5 Documentaries
“Black Box Diaries”
“Daughters”
“Power”
“Super/Man: The Christopher Reeve Story”
“Will & Harper”
See all Academy Award predictions
Variety Awards Circuit: Oscars
The 97thOscarswill be held on Sunday, March 2.
*** = PREDICTED WINNER
(All predicted nominees listed below are in alphabetical order)
Best Picture
“Anora” (Neon)
“The Brutalist” (A24)
“A Complete Unknown” (Searchlight Pictures)
“Conclave” (Focus Features)
“Dune: Part Two” (Warner Bros.)
“Emilia Pérez” (Netflix)
“Gladiator II” (Paramount Pictures)
“The Room Next Door” (Sony Pictures Classics)
“Sing Sing” (A24)
“Wicked” (Universal Pictures) ***Oscar category page with rankings>>>
Director
Jacques Audiard
“Emilia Pérez” (Netflix)
Sean Baker
“Anora” (Neon)
Brady Corbet
“The Brutalist” (A24)
Jon M. Chu
“Wicked” (Universal Pictures)
Ridley Scott ***
“Gladiator II” (Paramount Pictures)Oscar category page with rankings>>>
Actor
Adrien Brody
“The Brutalist” (A24)
Timothée Chalamet ***
“A Complete Unknown” (Searchlight Pictures)
Daniel Craig
“Queer” (A24)
Colman Domingo
“Sing Sing” (A24)
Ralph Fiennes
“Conclave” (Focus Features)Oscar category page with rankings>>>
Actress
Cynthia Erivo
“Wicked” (Universal Pictures)
Karla Sofía Gascón
“Emilia Pérez” (Netflix)
Marianne Jean-Baptiste
“Hard Truths” (Bleecker Street)
Angelina Jolie
“Maria” (Netflix)
Mikey Madison ***
“Anora” (Neon)Oscar category page with rankings>>>
Supporting Actor
Yura Borisov
“Anora” (Neon)
Kieran Culkin
“A Real Pain” (Searchlight Pictures)
Clarence Maclin
“Sing Sing” (A24)
Guy Pearce
“The Brutalist” (A24)
Denzel Washington ***
“Gladiator II” (Paramount Pictures)Oscar category page with rankings>>>
Supporting Actress
Monica Barbaro
“A Complete Unknown” (Searchlight Pictures)
Danielle Deadwyler
“The Piano Lesson” (Netflix)
Ariana Grande ***
“Wicked” (Universal Pictures)
Isabella Rossellini
“Conclave” (Focus Features)
Zoe Saldaña
“Emilia Pérez” (Netflix)Oscar category page with rankings>>>
Original Screenplay
“Anora” (Neon) ***
Sean Baker
“The Brutalist” (A24)
Brady Corbet, Mona Fastvold
“Hard Truths” (Bleecker Street)
Mike Leigh
“A Real Pain” (Searchlight Pictures)
Jesse Eisenberg
“The Seed of the Sacred Fig” (Neon)
Mohammad RasoulofOscar category page with rankings>>>
Adapted Screenplay
“Conclave” (Focus Features) ***
Peter Straughan
“Emilia Pérez” (Netflix)
Jacques Audiard
“The Room Next Door” (Sony Pictures Classics)
Pedro Almodóvar
“Sing Sing” (A24)
Clint Bentley, Greg Kwedar, Clarence Maclin, John “Divine G” Whitfield
“Wicked” (Universal Pictures)
Winnie Holzman, Dana FoxOscar category page with rankings>>>
Animated Feature
“Flow” (Janus Films and Sideshow)
“Inside Out 2” (Pixar)
“Memoir of a Snail” (IFC Films)
“Wallace and Gromit: Vengeance Most Fowl” (Netflix)
“The Wild Robot” (DreamWorks Animation) ***Oscar category page with rankings>>>
Production Design
“Blitz” (Apple Original Films)
“Dune: Part Two” (Warner Bros.)
“Gladiator II” (Paramount Pictures)
“Nosferatu” (Focus Features)
“Wicked” (Universal Pictures) ***Oscar category page with rankings>>>
Cinematography
“The Brutalist” (A24) ***
“Dune: Part Two” (Warner Bros.)
“Emilia Pérez” (Netflix)
“Maria” (Netflix)
“Nosferatu” (Focus Features)Oscar category page with rankings>>>
Costume Design
“A Complete Unknown” (Searchlight Pictures)
“Dune: Part Two” (Warner Bros.)
“Gladiator II” (Paramount Pictures)
“Maria” (Netflix)
“Wicked” (Universal Pictures) ***Oscar category page with rankings>>>
Film Editing
“Anora” (Neon)
“The Brutalist” (A24) ***
“Conclave” (Focus Features)
“Dune: Part Two” (Warner Bros.)
“Wicked” (Universal Pictures)Oscar category page with rankings>>>
Makeup and Hairstyling
“Beetlejuice Beetlejuice” (Warner Bros.)
“Dune: Part Two” (Warner Bros.) ***
“Emilia Pérez” (Netflix)
“The Substance” (Mubi)
“Wicked” (Universal Pictures)Oscar category page with rankings>>>
Sound
“Blitz” (Apple Original Films)
“A Complete Unknown” (Searchlight Pictures)
“Dune: Part Two” (Warner Bros.)
“Gladiator II” (Paramount Pictures) ***
“Wicked” (Universal Pictures)Oscar category page with rankings>>>
Visual Effects
“Better Man” (Paramount Pictures)
“Dune: Part Two” (Warner Bros.)
“Gladiator II” (Paramount Pictures) ***
“Kingdom of the Planet of the Apes” (20th Century Studios)
“Wicked” (Universal Pictures)Oscar category page with rankings>>>
Original Score
“The Brutalist” (A24) ***
“Conclave” (Focus Features)
“Emilia Pérez” (Netflix)
“The Room Next Door” (Sony Pictures Classics)
“The Wild Robot” (DreamWorks Animation)Oscar category page with rankings>>>
Original Song
“Forbidden Road” from “Better Man” (Paramount Pictures)
“El Mal” from “Emilia Pérez” (Netflix) ***
“Mi Camino” from “Emilia Pérez” (Netflix)
“The Journey” from “The Six Triple Eight” (Netflix)
“Kiss the Sky” from “The Wild Robot” (DreamWorks Animation)Oscar category page with rankings>>>
Documentary Feature
“Dahomey” (Mubi)
“Daughters” (Netflix) ***
“No Other Land” (ImmerGuteFilme)
“Sugarcane” (National Geographic Documentary Films)
“Will & Harper” (Netflix)Oscar category page with rankings>>>
International Feature
“Dahomey” from Senegal (Mubi)
“Emilia Pérez” from France (Netflix) ***
“Kneecap” from Ireland (Sony Pictures Classics)
“I’m Still Here” from Brazil (Sony Pictures Classics)
“The Seed of the Sacred Fig” from Germany (Neon)Oscar category page with rankings>>>
More Information (All Categories)
2024-2025 Oscars Calendar and Timeline – Full awards season calendar here
- Eligibility period: Jan. 1, 2024 – Dec. 31, 2024
- General entry, best picture, RAISE submission deadline: Thursday, Nov. 14, 2024
- Governors Awards: Sunday, Nov. 17, 2024
- Preliminary voting begins Monday, Dec. 9, 2024, at 9 a.m. PT.
- Preliminary voting ends Friday, Dec. 13, 2024, at 5 p.m. PT.
- Oscar Shortlists Announcement: Tuesday, Dec. 17, 2024
- Eligibility period ends: Tuesday, Dec. 31, 2024
- Nominations voting begins Wednesday, Jan. 8, 2025, at 9 a.m. PT.
- Nominations voting ends Sunday, Jan. 12, 2025, at 5 p.m. PT.
- Oscar Nominations Announcement: Friday, Jan. 17, 2025
- Oscar Nominees Luncheon: Monday, Feb. 10, 2025
- Final voting begins Tuesday, Feb. 11, 2025, at 9 a.m. PT
- Final voting ends: Tuesday, Feb. 18, 2025, at 5 p.m. PT
- Scientific and Technical Awards: Tuesday, Feb. 18, 2025
- 97th Oscars: Sunday, March 2, 2025
Oscars Prediction Categories
— — Best Picture Director Actor in a Leading Role Actress in a Leading Role Actor in a Supporting Role Actress in a Supporting Role Original Screenplay Adapted Screenplay Animated Feature Production Design Cinematography Costume Design Film Editing Makeup and Hairstyling Sound Visual Effects Original Score Original Song Documentary Feature International Feature Animated Short Documentary Short Live Action Short Casting (coming in 2026) About the Academy Awards
The Academy Awards, better known as the Oscars, is Hollywood’s most prestigious artistic award in the film industry. Since 1927, nominees and winners have been selected by members of the Academy of Motion Picture Arts and Sciences (AMPAS). Nineteen branches are represented within the nearly 11,000-person membership. The branches are actors, animators, associates, casting directors, cinematographers, costume designers, directors, documentary, executives, film editors, makeup and hairstylists, marketing and public relations, members-at-large, members-at-large (artists’ representatives), music, producers, production design, short films, sound, visual effects and writers.
Awards Circuit Columns and Podcast Archives (2024-2025)
Awards Circuit Film Columns, Features, and News Exclusives
- Studios Want Oscar Recognition for ‘Inside Out 2’ and ‘The Wild Robot’ Beyond Animated Feature. Will Voters Embrace Them?
- ‘Conclave’ Prays for Oscar Attention: How Do Religious Movies Perform With Academy Voters?
- ‘Anora’ and ‘Challengers’ Get Awards Boosts From Gotham Nominations in Year Without Oscar Frontrunners
- Has Netflix’s Long Journey to Win Best Picture Finally Arrived With ‘Emilia Pérez?’
- Art of the Oscar Sequel: Will the Academy Embrace Multiple Second Installments?
Awards Circuit Podcast (Film Season)
- Denis Villeneuve on ‘Dune 3,’ Amy Adams’ Oscar Snub for ‘Arrival’ and the Secret Rom-Com He Wrote
- ‘Thelma’ Star June Squibb on Potentially Being the Oldest Oscar Nominee, Threatening Ryan Reynolds and Admiring Adam Sandler
- Isabella Rossellini on ‘Conclave’ and How She Almost Didn’t Get ‘Death Becomes Her’ Role Because the Studio ‘Wanted Someone More Famous, More Established’
- John Magaro on How Being an Extra in Steven Spielberg’s ‘Munich’ Helped Him Prepare for ‘September 5’: ‘It’s About the Responsibility of Journalists’
- Saoirse Ronan On Feeling Responsible for Protecting Young Actors in Hollywood and Her Election Fears: ‘Please Don’t Be on the Fence’
Jump to Comments
More from Variety
‘The Traitors’ U.K. Sets Season 3 Premiere as Host Claudia Winkleman Promises to ‘Start the New Year With a Bang’
Consumer Awareness of Celebrity Deepfakes: Survey Data
Paula’s Choice’s Entire Website Is 25% Off for Black Friday
Cannes Prizewinner Anasuya Sengupta, BAFTA Breakthrough Actor Sindhu Sreenivasa Murthy Lead Tulsea’s New Talent Roster (EXCLUSIVE)
Entertainment Everywhere: A Special Report
Ncuti Gatwa Shines in First-Look Images of ‘The Importance of Being Earnest’ at the National Theatre (EXCLUSIVE)
More From Our Brands
Rolling Stone
From Beats to Bose, the Best Black Friday Headphone Deals Make Holiday Gifting Easy
Robb Report
How an OG Ralph Lauren Model Found His Way From the Merchant Navy to the Runway
Sportico
At $750,000 a Throw, Amazon’s NFL Black Friday Ads Are an EasyScore
SPY
The Best Loofahs and Body Scrubbers, According to Dermatologists
TVLine
Sex Lives of College Girls EP, Stars Break Down Leighton’s Emotional Goodbye and Her Future With Alicia
